The Future of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)

His name is Bjorn Nyland…

And a couple of weeks ago, he drove 452.8 miles in a Tesla Model S — on one charge.

That’s right; Nyland charged his Tesla in the morning and proceeded to drive more than 450 miles before having to re-charge.

To put that in perspective, this would be like driving from Washington, D.C. to Boston without a single drop of gas.

When I speak of the future of electric vehicles, this is what I’m talking about.

Well, at least in theory.

A Bull Call

While the news of a man driving more than 450 miles in an electric car was enough to spark a lot of enthusiasm, I found myself incredibly disappointed.

You see, while it’s true that Bjorn managed to drive 452 miles on a single charge, he did so by maintaining a speed of 25 miles per hour. So basically, this mind-blowing range opportunity is pretty much useless for nearly every driver on the planet. And if you’re a regular reader of these pages, you know that when it comes to electric vehicles, there are few analysts more bullish than me.

But there’s a difference between making a bullish call and bullshit call. The “452-miles-on-a-single-charge” call is the latter.

Fairly Useless Information

Following news of this world record, a lot of folks used the opportunity to note that this accomplishment shows range anxiety fears are overstated.

I’ll tell you what: You find me an individual who plans on taking a trip from D.C. to Boston going only 25 miles per hour, and I’ll agree with that statement.

Of course, the truth is, range anxiety is kind of stupid anyway.

After all, more than 70% of the U.S. commuting population drives no more than 40 miles per day. With a Tesla Model S, you’re going to get between 180 and 220 miles on a single charge — driving the actual speed limit on the highway.

Hell, even with a Nissan LEAF, you’ll have more than enough juice to get you to and from work everyday — assuming you fall into that 70%.

In any event, I’m still calling out this 452 miles excitement for what it is: fairly useless information.

A Crap Ton of Electric Cars

As an alternative energy investor, it’s my job to ask a lot of questions. Sometimes these questions are met with less-than-enthusiastic responses.

For instance, while I was attending a solar conference back in 2007, a woman told me that the return on her solar panels was met within two years. I could hardly believe it. But as it turns out, she was talking about “energy return.” In other words, the energy it took to make her entire solar power system was “returned” within two years. The return on her investment, however, was going to be about 12 years.

I essentially told her that investors don’t care about “energy return;” they care about how quickly they can see a return on their monetary investment. She got upset, but she also knew I was right.

I look at electric cars as the same thing.

Right now, the premium one pays on a Tesla Model S may or may not be covered by fuel and maintenance cost savings. A lot of this has to do with your driving behavior.

Still, Tesla’s been selling a crap ton of its electric cars — not because there’s some great return on investment but because they’re just awesome cars.

From a cost-savings standpoint, I suspect that most folks buying Teslas these days aren’t too concerned about gas prices. I also suspect few care about a 450-mile range if such a range requires driving 25 miles per hour.

Of course, don’t get me wrong…

The Future for Tesla is a Bright One

In a few years, this game-changing car manufacturer will be delivering an electric vehicle capable of traveling 200 miles on a single charge — yet that costs consumers no more than an equivalent internal combustion engine.

The vehicle will also offer a very real return on investment, as it will never require a single drop of gas or any of the other expensive maintenance costs that come with owning an internal combustion vehicle — things like oil changes, spark plugs, and brake repairs (brakes last much longer in electric cars).

Over the course of eight years, you’re probably looking at a maintenance and fuel cost savings of about $8,000.

Tesla’s new affordable model, the Model 3, will run about $35,000. So deduct those cost savings, and you’re down to $27,000. And while I’m not a fan of government subsidies in any form (direct or indirect), assuming the $7,500 federal tax rebate is still in place, this brings the price down to $19,500.

That’s $19,500 for what is basically a smaller version of this:

You know what else you can buy for $19,500? This Kia:

I know which one I’d pick.

In any event, my point is that electric car enthusiasts do not have to gloss over the particulars in stories like the 450-mile electric car trip. While the headline was exciting, the particulars weren’t.

Just focus on the important things:

1. In two years, you’ll be able to buy a Tesla electric car for the same price as an equivalent internal combustion vehicle. The range may not be the same, but chances are it won’t matter.

2. By 2030, thanks to huge advances in battery chemistries, electric cars will easily deliver between 400 and 500 miles per charge. And you’ll be able to drive at normal speeds!

3. The electric vehicle market is in its earliest stages of development. In other words, it’s still a ground-floor opportunity for investors that are smart enough to know electric cars not only are here to stay but also represent the future of personal transportation.

Invest accordingly.

To a new way of life and a new generation of wealth…

Jeff Siegel

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Jeff is the founder and managing editor of Green Chip Stocks. For more on Jeff, go to his editor’s page.